This line is very interesting. Its now sitting at -1.5 with the Denver Broncos as the favorite.
Without Manning, Pittsburgh would be walking into Denver as a -6 to -6.5 favorite. So what the line tells me is that the sportsbooks (and bookies) know the "Joe Public" are going to back Manning as he attempts to make a comeback after a surgery that kept him out for over a year.
"Joe Public" likes to bet on those *feel good* sporting events. Lets take last weeks Peen State game... and we see how that ended. "Joe" didnt take into account that Ohio had a better team, has won close to 80% of their games the past 3 years, and they always show up to play. "Joe" ignored the fact that Penn State has been in disarray for the past few years, recruitment of top players has been down, and that the top tier recruits had transferred out this season. and the outcome?? "Joe" betting on the feel good story, go creamed at the books.
Betting on sports has nothing to do with betting on your emotions. Its about investing your money wisely and looking at the angles of the games. If you are betting with your heart, you arent a real bettor, you are a casual bettor who doesnt mind losing. Bettors who want to make money, always play it smart.
Dont get me wrong, Denver has a good team coming onto the feild. But, when you statistically look at what Denver and Pittsburgh are putting out there, The Steelers have a huge advantage on both sides of the ball. The Steelers have a better all-around defense, albeit their offensive line needs work. They are going to attack through the air with their new offensive coordinator, and have a string of running backs who can run the feild when Denver starts playing against the pass.
Now, Denver has a couple talented receivers, a mediocre at best running back corps. and an aging QB who hasnt taken a regular season snap in almost a year and a half. I will give them credit for having a speedy defense, but thats the double edge sword vs the Steelers new offensive look.
If you are GIVING me points to bet against an againg QB who hasnt thrown in over a year in the regular season, and a corps of running backs who have lackluster ability against the Steelers defense..... I will definately take the points and run away with an easy win to cash out my ticket.
PREDICTION: Steelers come away with a win, with Manning and "Joe Public" humbled. Take the +1.5 and roll with an easy underdog win for 1 Unit
Pittsburgh Steelers +1.5 for 1 Unit
Pittsburgh Steelers 30 Denver Broncos 13
No comments:
Post a Comment