Gonna keep these short and sweet. Taking the "Bad Boys" in both games today.
San Diego Chargers vs Oakland Raiders
Oakland here, first week of the season, playing at home vs the Chargers. I LOVE Palmer in this situation. Palmer has had half of last year, and a full camp and pre-season to learn the new system. He has great receivers at his disposal, and McFadden to open up the defense. **Trend Alert** Palmer has had his 2 biggest career days vs the Chargers..... The Chargers come in limping into another season. The fan base seems to have lost some faith, and for the past few seasons, the Chargers always get out to a slow start. Then they have to open up the season playing in one of the most hostile enviorments in the NFL. The Chargers have questions at the running back position, and Rivers seems to be degrading year after year.
Taking the Raiders -1.5 for 2 Units
Also taking Raiders -6.5 for +200 for 1 Unit
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Cincinatti Bengals vs Baltimore Ravens
Ravens coming off of what should have been a Super Bowl Year. Yet they were denied that chance in the Championship by the New England Patriots. They have something to prove, and I beleive this is the game they come out onto the field looking for a fight. It just happens to be against the Cincinatti Bengals. The Bengals are slowly starting to creep back into contention in the division, but still have questions at the most important positions. This game goes down quick, and look for the Ravens to take the lead early and build on it throughout the game. Like the big brother who had a bad day at school, then the llittle brother walks into the house.... You know how it ends.
Taking the Ravens -7 for 1 Unit
Taking the Ravens -4 First Half for 2 Units
Good luck guys, this looks like an easy win this Monday Night!!
Monday, September 10, 2012
The rise and fall of Andrew Leaf (errr I mean Luck)
As I sat and watched the Colts play the Bears, I thought "What a great game, Luck is a smart QB and wont make those typical mistakes.". Well, I was wrong a few minutes into the game. Leaf (err, I mean Luck) Was misreading routes, throwing into tight coverage, not protecting the ball, and playing like he was a deer caught in headlights.
This brought me back to 1998. The Colts took Manning as the first pick in the draft, and the Chargers took Ryan Leaf. One shined, and the other commited highway robbery. Ryan Leaf took a $31 million dollar contract (with an $11 million dollar guaranteed signing bonus) which made him the highest signing ever at that time. 4 years later he announced his retirement. While Manning on the other hand has grown to become one of the greatest quartbacks to ever play the game.
This got me to thinking... "What if the football gods are now paying the Colts back for sticking the Chargers and the NFL with Ryan Leaf"?.
Instead of the Colts choosing Robert Griffin III, they sided with Leaf, errr, I mean Luck. It was like magic watching Robert GriffinIII make reads, change the play at the line, and pick apart the Saints defense. He made smart decisions and wasnt rattled, unlike Leaf (damn, I did it again... I mean Luck).
Do I think Luck will be a bust or shine in the NFL? I cant positivally say "Yay" or "Nay" just yet. Maybe he had jitters because it was his first ever regular season NFL game? Or maybe he is just prone to making bad decisions on the NFL level, as he did throw a few picks in pre-season? Maybe he isnt used to the speed that all the players move in the NFL and he just needs time to groom into his rythm?
All these things were said about Leaf... But Leaf was stubborn and a selfish player. It seems Luck is a lot more mature, and really wants to play. So, time will tell....But, how long will the fans wait? RGBIII fans got a treat the very first day.
This brought me back to 1998. The Colts took Manning as the first pick in the draft, and the Chargers took Ryan Leaf. One shined, and the other commited highway robbery. Ryan Leaf took a $31 million dollar contract (with an $11 million dollar guaranteed signing bonus) which made him the highest signing ever at that time. 4 years later he announced his retirement. While Manning on the other hand has grown to become one of the greatest quartbacks to ever play the game.
This got me to thinking... "What if the football gods are now paying the Colts back for sticking the Chargers and the NFL with Ryan Leaf"?.
Instead of the Colts choosing Robert Griffin III, they sided with Leaf, errr, I mean Luck. It was like magic watching Robert GriffinIII make reads, change the play at the line, and pick apart the Saints defense. He made smart decisions and wasnt rattled, unlike Leaf (damn, I did it again... I mean Luck).
Do I think Luck will be a bust or shine in the NFL? I cant positivally say "Yay" or "Nay" just yet. Maybe he had jitters because it was his first ever regular season NFL game? Or maybe he is just prone to making bad decisions on the NFL level, as he did throw a few picks in pre-season? Maybe he isnt used to the speed that all the players move in the NFL and he just needs time to groom into his rythm?
All these things were said about Leaf... But Leaf was stubborn and a selfish player. It seems Luck is a lot more mature, and really wants to play. So, time will tell....But, how long will the fans wait? RGBIII fans got a treat the very first day.
Sunday, September 9, 2012
Start of the NFL season and I feel like a kid again!
Sitting here, just over an hour left till the NFL kicks off another great season this Sunday morning. Yes it offically started on Wednesday when the Cowboys gave the NY Giants a drubbing in front of the NY Giants fan-base.
Yet, this being the first Sunday is the start of the season in my mind. There are some great games and lots of questions we will have answered. Then on the flip side, there are some things we are sure of, that we will question.
My top questions for this season are:
1. Robert Griffin III - Will he live up to all the hype we have seen since the draft and in the pre-season? Will starting his first official game with the Saints be a learning experience, or something that will haunt him?
2. Andrew Luck - Same as RGIII, yet going against the Bears....
3. NY Jets - Are the Jets really as bad as we think they are? Or will they somehow have "Magic in the Air" and everything works out for them as it did in 2010?
4. Atlanta Falcons - Can they finally live up to the hype and actualy break those chains holding them back from at least reaching the Conference Championships?
5. Replacement Ref's - Will they affect the outcome of any game? Or will it only affect a handful as the normal refs?
Some of these questions I hope will be answered today, or at least clear some of the smoke around those same questions. But, I am sure even more questions will arise after the games are over. At least we can all enjoy this Sundays games, leading into the double header on Monday. And on a side note, if I hear or see 1 more article on "Sanchez-Longoria" or the media gives them a nickname like "Sangoria or Lonchez" I might seriously pull my teeth out.
Yet, this being the first Sunday is the start of the season in my mind. There are some great games and lots of questions we will have answered. Then on the flip side, there are some things we are sure of, that we will question.
My top questions for this season are:
1. Robert Griffin III - Will he live up to all the hype we have seen since the draft and in the pre-season? Will starting his first official game with the Saints be a learning experience, or something that will haunt him?
2. Andrew Luck - Same as RGIII, yet going against the Bears....
3. NY Jets - Are the Jets really as bad as we think they are? Or will they somehow have "Magic in the Air" and everything works out for them as it did in 2010?
4. Atlanta Falcons - Can they finally live up to the hype and actualy break those chains holding them back from at least reaching the Conference Championships?
5. Replacement Ref's - Will they affect the outcome of any game? Or will it only affect a handful as the normal refs?
Some of these questions I hope will be answered today, or at least clear some of the smoke around those same questions. But, I am sure even more questions will arise after the games are over. At least we can all enjoy this Sundays games, leading into the double header on Monday. And on a side note, if I hear or see 1 more article on "Sanchez-Longoria" or the media gives them a nickname like "Sangoria or Lonchez" I might seriously pull my teeth out.
Thursday, September 6, 2012
College Football week #2 - lets settle in for a long season
Last week was a great week in college for those who follow these plays. You went 4-1 for +5.60 units, which is a great start to the season. The only loss was with Michigan State not covering the spread. Go back to my post and read the write up, and thats how the game pretty much went. RB Bell ran up and down the feild, the Michigan State defense only gave up 6 points, yet, Michigan State still didnt cover, albeit, they did win.
So now we go into week #2 of this long college football season. Some teams are who we thought they were going to be, and some teams we are still trying to figure out. So, enough of the hoopla, and lets just get to the plays.
Central Florida vs Ohio State (-17.5)
Urban Meyer knows how to get his players ready and riled up for a game. With this being the first home game of the season, he will not take it lightly. When they arrived back to the campus, Meyer and the players were already watching film into the evening preparing for Central Florida. With the new spread offense showing great potential (except for that sloppy first quarter vs Miami of Ohio last week), they settled in and did whatever they wanted. I can see the same thing happening here. The only thing is Ohio State is going to have to slow down Central Floridas great offensive attack... Which I think they should do by keeping them off of the feild.
Prediction: Central Florida 20 Ohio State 52
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Purdue vs Notre Dame (-14.5)
Notre Dame's huge defensive and offensive line vs Purdues Huge offensive line and undersized defensive line.... Advantage Notre Dame. Thats going to be the tale of the game, mark my words. Notre Dame has such a balanced attack that Purdue will be unable to slow it down, even tho Notre Dame's QB hasnt had much college experience. Watch the Fighting Irish put on a show at home.
Prediction: Purdue 16 Notre Dame 41
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Iowa State (+4.5) vs Iowa
This is the game of Iowa States running back vs Iowa's running back. Iowa does have a slightly bigger offensive line, YET Iwoa State has an even better and faster defensive line and LB's. Iowa States RB Shontrelle Johnson (just like Mich. St. Bell) will have a career day, so expect huge numbers from him. Then add in the speedy scrambling QB Steele Jantz who can heave the ball or throw the timely screen pass to exploit the Iowa defense when they set up to stop the run. The key to this game - Iowa States defense pressures the QB and bottles up the Iowa running game. Serious upset here! Im taking the better defensive line and better QB/RB combo.
Prediction: Iowa State 30 Iowa 20
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Maryland vs Temple (-10.5)
Steve Addazio is making a "Tebow Clone" out of Temples QB Chris Coyer since coming over from Florida last year to become head coach of the Owls. Temple has one of the biggest offensive lines in college, and loves to run. When they want to pass, if it isnt there, you have Chris "Tebow" Coyer who is able to run downfeild when he see's an open lane. **If you want to watch an exciting game, this is the one I reccomend this weekend.
Prediction: Maryland 24 Temple 41
PLAYS FOR THIS WEEK:
Ohio State -17.5 for 1 Unit
Notre Dame -14.5 for 2 Units
Iowa State +4.5 for 1 Units
Temple -10.5 for 2 Units
6 Units out for this weekends college games. Lets have a great weekend.!
So now we go into week #2 of this long college football season. Some teams are who we thought they were going to be, and some teams we are still trying to figure out. So, enough of the hoopla, and lets just get to the plays.
Central Florida vs Ohio State (-17.5)
Urban Meyer knows how to get his players ready and riled up for a game. With this being the first home game of the season, he will not take it lightly. When they arrived back to the campus, Meyer and the players were already watching film into the evening preparing for Central Florida. With the new spread offense showing great potential (except for that sloppy first quarter vs Miami of Ohio last week), they settled in and did whatever they wanted. I can see the same thing happening here. The only thing is Ohio State is going to have to slow down Central Floridas great offensive attack... Which I think they should do by keeping them off of the feild.
Prediction: Central Florida 20 Ohio State 52
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Purdue vs Notre Dame (-14.5)
Notre Dame's huge defensive and offensive line vs Purdues Huge offensive line and undersized defensive line.... Advantage Notre Dame. Thats going to be the tale of the game, mark my words. Notre Dame has such a balanced attack that Purdue will be unable to slow it down, even tho Notre Dame's QB hasnt had much college experience. Watch the Fighting Irish put on a show at home.
Prediction: Purdue 16 Notre Dame 41
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Iowa State (+4.5) vs Iowa
This is the game of Iowa States running back vs Iowa's running back. Iowa does have a slightly bigger offensive line, YET Iwoa State has an even better and faster defensive line and LB's. Iowa States RB Shontrelle Johnson (just like Mich. St. Bell) will have a career day, so expect huge numbers from him. Then add in the speedy scrambling QB Steele Jantz who can heave the ball or throw the timely screen pass to exploit the Iowa defense when they set up to stop the run. The key to this game - Iowa States defense pressures the QB and bottles up the Iowa running game. Serious upset here! Im taking the better defensive line and better QB/RB combo.
Prediction: Iowa State 30 Iowa 20
________________________________________________________
Maryland vs Temple (-10.5)
Steve Addazio is making a "Tebow Clone" out of Temples QB Chris Coyer since coming over from Florida last year to become head coach of the Owls. Temple has one of the biggest offensive lines in college, and loves to run. When they want to pass, if it isnt there, you have Chris "Tebow" Coyer who is able to run downfeild when he see's an open lane. **If you want to watch an exciting game, this is the one I reccomend this weekend.
Prediction: Maryland 24 Temple 41
PLAYS FOR THIS WEEK:
Ohio State -17.5 for 1 Unit
Notre Dame -14.5 for 2 Units
Iowa State +4.5 for 1 Units
Temple -10.5 for 2 Units
6 Units out for this weekends college games. Lets have a great weekend.!
Wednesday, September 5, 2012
NFL GAME - Pittsburgh Steelers vs Denver Broncos -1.5
This line is very interesting. Its now sitting at -1.5 with the Denver Broncos as the favorite.
Without Manning, Pittsburgh would be walking into Denver as a -6 to -6.5 favorite. So what the line tells me is that the sportsbooks (and bookies) know the "Joe Public" are going to back Manning as he attempts to make a comeback after a surgery that kept him out for over a year.
"Joe Public" likes to bet on those *feel good* sporting events. Lets take last weeks Peen State game... and we see how that ended. "Joe" didnt take into account that Ohio had a better team, has won close to 80% of their games the past 3 years, and they always show up to play. "Joe" ignored the fact that Penn State has been in disarray for the past few years, recruitment of top players has been down, and that the top tier recruits had transferred out this season. and the outcome?? "Joe" betting on the feel good story, go creamed at the books.
Betting on sports has nothing to do with betting on your emotions. Its about investing your money wisely and looking at the angles of the games. If you are betting with your heart, you arent a real bettor, you are a casual bettor who doesnt mind losing. Bettors who want to make money, always play it smart.
Dont get me wrong, Denver has a good team coming onto the feild. But, when you statistically look at what Denver and Pittsburgh are putting out there, The Steelers have a huge advantage on both sides of the ball. The Steelers have a better all-around defense, albeit their offensive line needs work. They are going to attack through the air with their new offensive coordinator, and have a string of running backs who can run the feild when Denver starts playing against the pass.
Now, Denver has a couple talented receivers, a mediocre at best running back corps. and an aging QB who hasnt taken a regular season snap in almost a year and a half. I will give them credit for having a speedy defense, but thats the double edge sword vs the Steelers new offensive look.
If you are GIVING me points to bet against an againg QB who hasnt thrown in over a year in the regular season, and a corps of running backs who have lackluster ability against the Steelers defense..... I will definately take the points and run away with an easy win to cash out my ticket.
PREDICTION: Steelers come away with a win, with Manning and "Joe Public" humbled. Take the +1.5 and roll with an easy underdog win for 1 Unit
Pittsburgh Steelers +1.5 for 1 Unit
Pittsburgh Steelers 30 Denver Broncos 13
Without Manning, Pittsburgh would be walking into Denver as a -6 to -6.5 favorite. So what the line tells me is that the sportsbooks (and bookies) know the "Joe Public" are going to back Manning as he attempts to make a comeback after a surgery that kept him out for over a year.
"Joe Public" likes to bet on those *feel good* sporting events. Lets take last weeks Peen State game... and we see how that ended. "Joe" didnt take into account that Ohio had a better team, has won close to 80% of their games the past 3 years, and they always show up to play. "Joe" ignored the fact that Penn State has been in disarray for the past few years, recruitment of top players has been down, and that the top tier recruits had transferred out this season. and the outcome?? "Joe" betting on the feel good story, go creamed at the books.
Betting on sports has nothing to do with betting on your emotions. Its about investing your money wisely and looking at the angles of the games. If you are betting with your heart, you arent a real bettor, you are a casual bettor who doesnt mind losing. Bettors who want to make money, always play it smart.
Dont get me wrong, Denver has a good team coming onto the feild. But, when you statistically look at what Denver and Pittsburgh are putting out there, The Steelers have a huge advantage on both sides of the ball. The Steelers have a better all-around defense, albeit their offensive line needs work. They are going to attack through the air with their new offensive coordinator, and have a string of running backs who can run the feild when Denver starts playing against the pass.
Now, Denver has a couple talented receivers, a mediocre at best running back corps. and an aging QB who hasnt taken a regular season snap in almost a year and a half. I will give them credit for having a speedy defense, but thats the double edge sword vs the Steelers new offensive look.
If you are GIVING me points to bet against an againg QB who hasnt thrown in over a year in the regular season, and a corps of running backs who have lackluster ability against the Steelers defense..... I will definately take the points and run away with an easy win to cash out my ticket.
PREDICTION: Steelers come away with a win, with Manning and "Joe Public" humbled. Take the +1.5 and roll with an easy underdog win for 1 Unit
Pittsburgh Steelers +1.5 for 1 Unit
Pittsburgh Steelers 30 Denver Broncos 13
Sunday, September 2, 2012
NFL Week 1 plays - Dog Day Week
Several dogs are in play this opening week, as oddsmakers and squares always over-value teams with a winning season last year, and under-value mediocre and poor teams from last year. So week 1 is where you can make money, or go broke at the start of the season. So here are the plays for this opening week of the NFL:
Dallas +4 (1/2 unit)
Dallas ML +180 (1/2 unit)
Atlanta -1 -130 ( 2 units **updated line from the last post last week)
Oakland Raiders +1.5 (2 units)
Indianapolis +11 (1 unit)
6 units worth of plays with week, all with value towards the bettor. So lets have a great opening week again, following the 4-1 +5.80 NCAAF winning opening week
Dallas +4 (1/2 unit)
Dallas ML +180 (1/2 unit)
Atlanta -1 -130 ( 2 units **updated line from the last post last week)
Oakland Raiders +1.5 (2 units)
Indianapolis +11 (1 unit)
6 units worth of plays with week, all with value towards the bettor. So lets have a great opening week again, following the 4-1 +5.80 NCAAF winning opening week
Saturday, September 1, 2012
Saturdays NCAAF - 3 games today
NCAAF Record 1-1 -0.40 units
Ohio State -23.5
Clemson -3.5
Hawaii +40.5
All plays are for 2 units
Ohio State -23.5
Clemson -3.5
Hawaii +40.5
All plays are for 2 units
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