Chicago Bears (+4) vs Dallas Cowboys

Another defensive spotlight game. This one is simple. the Cowboys offense, even though they are 2-1 have struggled. Now they are playing a defense that can stop both the run and pass. And with their offensive line offering no protection, Romo plays at his worst. The Cowboys are also killing themselves with penalties and turnovers this year. This will be a close game, as both teams are going after the QB's. It will be a close game, quite a few turnovers (prop bet of turnovers OVER 4 would be a nice play) This game comes down to the wire, I see a field goal winning it for either team. Thats why I am taking the +4... had the Cowboys been +4 I would be taking them. I have this line at PICK. 2 Units Chicago +4 1 Unit Money Line +180

Seattle vs St. Louis (+2.5 and ML +125)

Seattle comes to town after losing to Green Bay (yes, they lost) but was handed a win. Seattles offense struggled to move the ball at all, and only got lucky a few plays. With no one to lead that offense, they storm into St. Louis. The Rams, having just come home from Chicago, managing a measley 6 points, are poised to make an offensive spurt. Seattle has a great defensive front, but will have to contend with a 2 dimensional offense.... unlike last weeks loss to Green Bay, where they were able to constantly rush Rogers, as the Packers arent a threat to run. Im playing the better team here, and at home. I dont see how a bad team on the road, coming off of a loss, with a horrid offense is favored in this one. Ill lay my money with QB Bradford and RB Jackson, as their offensive line is looking healthier. The better offense wins this one in a low scoring affair. 2 Units St Louis +2.5 1 Unit Money Line +125

NFL needs to end the lockout ASAP -Packers were robbed

Looking at the photo, it makes you wonder what the referee was thinking when he made the touchdown call. You can see the ref's arm going up to make the signal, but look at where the ball is while he is doing it. Green Bay defender Jennings, clearly has both hands on the ball and is clutching it to his chest. While Seattle's WR Tate, has his forearm around Jennings neck and chest. The other referee had already signaled to "Stop the clock" which meant it was going to be a touchback, and Green Bays ball... game over. Then, out of nowhere, a hero runs in out of nowhere, and signals a touchdown. As you can see, by looking at the pic, Jennings had 100% possession of the ball. So, I ask again... "What was that referee thinking?"

Now, you will have the biased Seattle die-hard fans saying that the referee was using the "Simultainious Catch" rule. Which basically says, that if two opposing players simultainiously catch the ball at the exact same time, the tie goes to the offensive player. Well, as this photo shows, Gren Bay's Jennings again has 100% possession of the ball, has both hands on it, and is bringing it down to his chest. You can see Seattle's WR Tate elbow near Jennings stomach area. So unless Tate has an extraordinarily long forarm, thats made of rubber, there is no way he has any possession of the ball. It would just defy all the laws of physics and the build of the human body for Tate to be remotely close to possessing the ball at the same time as Jennings. The NFL/Referee lockout has to stop. There are so many fans, players and organizations that are fed up... and ITS ONLY WEEK #3!!! I know that I am not the only one who agrees that the calls are getting worse as the season goes on, so it makes you wonder how bad the officiating is going to be next week. It needs to stop, and it needs to stop NOW!

Week #3 Football Plays - Another winning week (hopefully)

Philadelphia Eagles vs Arizona Cardinals +4

The Eagles on the road, Playing Arizona at home.... Michael Vick is not playing well at all, forcing the ball and making bad decisions. Now with an offensive line that is decimated, this will be trouble. Vick has NEVER thrown or ran for a touchdown against Arizona.... yet he has turned the ball over 6 times ot them in 3 games. He has only passed for an average of 132 yds a game, and only completing 51% of his passes, giving him a 44.5 QBR. Then you put him up against Arizonas huge, healthy front line that is exactly the type that gives him and McCoy trouble, and there goes the Eagles offense. Arizonas running game is stepping up slowly, and the Eagles defense is giving up almost 5yds per run. This will open up the play action and wide-outs for Arizona. Arizonas defense wins this game for them. causing turnovers and giving the Cardinals the short field for most of the game. Im taking the LIVE DOG in this one, as it should have been a small favorite.

Arizona +4 for 2 units = $220 to win $200
Arizona ML +185 for 1 unit = $100 to win $185


Atlanta Falcons +3 vs San Diego Chargers

Seriously?? Chargers are favored by -3 ?? Let me ask you this question... who have the Chargers played this year to make them a favorite? The answer = Titans and Raiders.... the two WORST offenses in the NFL at this point. ,, who also happen to both be in the top 5 WORST Defenses in the NFL. then you have the Falcons who have played against Manning and the Broncos, both with really good offenses and defenses this year, and they stepped up. Im looking at this game as the Falcons keep the Chargers defense backpeddling, the Falcons offense is way too much. They can run the ball or pass the ball. Rivers will be confused by Nolans defensive scheme, just like Peyton Manning was... and I consider Manning to be the smartest QB in the NFL. Im taking the Road Dog here, the Falcons have just too much on both sides of the ball against a team that hasnt played anyone yet.

Atlanta Falcons +3 for 2 units $220 to win $200
Atlanata falcons ML for 1 unit $100 to win $150


Jacksonville Jaguars vs Indianapolis Colts -3

Jacksonville is horrible. this is the game where Luck really steps up at home. Playing against one of the worst defenses this year, and a lackluster offense led by MJD... If you are watching MJD play, he is taking it careful, and I mean very careful. He doesnt want to get hurt, he is looking for the big contract or to get traded. If he gets hurt, he loses the edge at the big $$$ he wants. Jaguars passing game is at best, mediocre. Indianapolis, at home, with the players and crowd supporting Luck and the Colts. This will be the game of the Colts season, Luck has his best game of the year and the Colts defense get a shut out or holds them to 10 or less.

Indianapolis Colts -3 for 2 units $220 to win $200


Green Bay Packers -3 vs Seattle Seahawks

I capped this game on Monday. My numbers have the Packers favored by -7.5. Then I find out Tuesday I cna get them at -3?? Seriously!!?? All day long!!! I know its hard to bet against the Seahawks at home, but in this spot vs the Packers, its an easy wager. First off, the Seahawks if they want ot win have to win in a shootout. but if you look at how Green Bays defense has stepped up this year (they said they would in the preseason), I dont see the Seahawks keeping up. then you have the offense of Rogers going up and down the field.... its just too much for the Seahawks defense. -3?? Definately ALL OVER IT! Worst part of this play, is that its the SQUAREST play on the board.

Green Bay Packers -3 for 3 units $330 to win $300
Green Bay Packers ALT Spread -7.5 +290 $100 to win $290


NY Giants -1.5 vs Carolina Pamnthers

Just because I need to have a little action on Thursdays game, Im taking the Giants -1.5 on the road. Until the Panthers can find their run game, Im betting the Giants defense shows up. Close game either way, as my personal line has the Giants -3. Im looking for Eli to win this one for the team and the defense to make a couple big stops.

NY Giants -1.5 for 1/2 unit $55 to win $50

This Weeks NFL PLAYS!!! Week #2 with 6 plays!

Atlanta Falcons -3 (2 Units)
KC Chiefs +3 (2 Units)
Indianapolis Colts +1.5 (1 Unit)
Steelers/Jets OVER 41.5 (2 units)
NO Saints -2.5 (2 Units)
SF 49ers -6 (2 Units)

6 plays during week #2... Holy Crap!!! Lets hope for a nice 6-0 day, or at least a 4-2 day haha

New System (hopefully) for betting the NFL this year

Been working on this 2 weeks before the season started, and this does NOT include any pre-season game om la. Going to see how this does. Its running on all the stats from last season+Playoffs and now the first week of the season.... so some teams/players have a greater number sampling then others.

It went 12-4 ATS last week, so I dont know if it was just a fluke or this can actually hold some water. I hope its actually something we can use, because it takes little over an hour per game to get a final number. Im working on the weekends NFL games, and will update as I get them done.

So for now all I have is tonights game. Which will be Green Bay vs Chicago #'s.

Green Bay Packers 37.55 pts (without defense/offensive turnovers/takaways pts from them)
Chicago Bears 20.3333 pts (without defense/offensive turnovers/takaways pts from them)

Variance Green Bay -8.2222 pts

Turnover/Takaway Points Variance points taken into consideration this year

Green Bay Packers 31.0
Chicago Bears 23.2

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On a side note, here is how it did on last weeks games ATS.

Dallas Cowboys 24.4
NY Giants 22.6

Atlanata Falcons 34.5
Kansas City Chiefs 29.2

Philadelphia Eagles 21.66
Cleveland Browns 12.9

Washington Redskins 25.3
N.O. Saints 33.2

N.E. Patriots 37.9
Tenn Titans 19.0

Miami Dolphins 15.4
Houston Texans 30.7

Jax Jaguars 17.5
Minn Vikings 22.3 (loss)

St. Louis Rams 19.9
Detriot Lions 29.0 (loss)

Buffalo Bills 13.6
NY Jets 23.5

Indianapolis Colts 14.2
Chicago Bears 25.6

San Francisco 49ers 28.8
Green Bay Packers 29.1

Carolina Panthers 23.9 (loss)
TB Bucs 15.1

Seattle Seahawks 19.5
Arizona Cardinals 17.5

Pitt Steelers 22.9
Denver Broncos 27.3

Cinn Bengals 20.4
Balt Ravens 32.8

SD Chargers 18.6
Oak Raiders 25.4 (Loss)

Notre Dame is ACCepting a New Outlook

Notre Dame announced Wednesday morning that they will be joining the ACC Conference as early as 2014. While snubbing the BIG 10 who was rumored that they would accept Notre Dame only if they moved all of their athletic programs to their conference. By aligning with the ACC, they came to the agreement that only the football program would remain independant, but would still have to play 5 ACC opponents during the football season.

This is a smart move for Notre Dame for several reasons. The basketball program would now play basketball powerhouses such as Duke and North Carolina and then get back the old rivalries against Syracuse and Pittsburgh. The football program would have to compete against Florida State, Miami, Virginia Tech and Clemson. Notre Dame did announce plans to hopefully further thier rivalry games versus USC, Navy and Michigan. Another notch in the deal is that Notre Dame has access to the Orange Bowl and the ACC's non-BCS bowl tie-ins. This schedule put Notre Dame's football program a step up in talent against their ACC's foes, which will hopefully boost their win/loss record.

The move does come at a cost. According to Big East associate commissioner John Paquette, Notre Dame must pay the conference a $5 million exit fee and provide 27 months' notice before leaving. Which is far less then the $7.5 million that Pittsburgh and Syracuse had to fork over to join the ACC by 2013. With the Football program waning, and the basketball program strengthening, both are going to benefit greatly from this move.

The only downfall here is that Notre Dame's independance is waning. By a vote of 7-5, they were forced to accept the 5 games against its ACC opponents in football. Which shows that Notre Dame's grip on being 100% independant is slowly slipping away. It is inevitable that sooner, rather then later, they will have to bite the bullet and pledge its loyalty to the ACC. They ACCepted the move, but how much longer until they ACCept their fate? Time will only tell...

NFL Picks and suggestions on who will win in week #2 of the NFL. Who is going to shine and who will fall?

Week #1 in the NFL came and went with a bang, and we saw some surprises. But those who have fantasy leagues, wager on sports legally, or have office pools need all the information they can get so they can have a slight advantage over anyone else. So as we look into week #2, lets see some trends than can give you an edge over your competition. While going 5-3 last week against the spread, and 13-2 straight up, I hopefully can do better this week.

Chicago Bears vs Green Bay Packers (-6.5)
When Aaron Rogers is at home the Bears have yet to beat the Packers, amassing an 0-3 record in Green Bay, and 1-6 record overall since Rogers has taken the Helm. When you look at last weeks games, the Packers played one of the leagues best defenses, while the Bears played on that was less than stellar. I dont see the Packers starting the season 0-2, and the Bears arent playing against a rookie QB this week. PICK: Green Bay Packers -6.5

Denver Broncos vs Atlanta Falcons (-3)
Matt Ryan came to play this year, the only thing bad about that is that Peyton Manning came to play as well. Both teams are almost identical on both sides of the ball. The only difference here is that the Falcons have a slight advantage with their offensive threats at the RB, WR and TE positions. On the flip side, the Broncos only have the edge in the QB position. Both offensive lines looked solid and should have no problem protecting the quarterback. I expect a close game, but not close enough at the end. This will be a fun game to watch. Take the better offensive weapons. PICK: Atlanta Falcons -3

Kansas City Chiefs vs Buffalo Bills (-3)
The Chiefs march into Buffalo for a very fun game this week. Yet I dont have much faith in Fitzpatrick and Spiller cant carry the load himself, as I am sure the Chiefs will be playing to stop him and make Fitzpatrick beat them. The Bills defense will struggle with the balanced attack of Charles and Cassell. Look for the Chiefs to lead by halftime, and win by double digits. PICK: Kansas City Chiefs +3

There are some great games this weekend, so lets have a great weekend. I'll finish up with who I think will win "straight up" this week. Packers, Giants, Patriots, Panters, Chiefs, Ravens, Raiders, Bengals, Texans, Seahawks, Redskins, Steelers, chargers, 49ers and Falcons.

follow me on Twitter for updates https://twitter.com/NFLTrends .

Week #1 of College and NFL in the books... Season is looking good!!

1st week is in the books. Im glad to say I had a winning week at the sportsbooks so far during this football season going a meager 10-7 for +3.20 units.

Im already looking ahead to this weeks plays in college and the NFL. But there are still some uncertains we have roaming around, and some that totally surprised me after this week.

1. Atlanta Falcons and the Dallas Cowboys showed up and did what I expected them to do.
2. The Raiders.... I had high hopes for them this season with Palmer and Russell both healthy. Yet I have to rethink this after the whole team made such stupid mistakes the whole game. Palmer and Russell cant win the games by themselves.
3. Steelers showing signs of age rapidly, and refuse to leave the old defensive system they have used for over a decade. I think its time to shake things up on defense, show a new look, everyone by now knows how they defend.
4. Carolina and their running game (or lack of one).

Those are my top points going forward into week #2. Andrew Luck almost made the list, but like my previous post, it is still to early to tell... Im going to give him a few more shots to show he has what it takes to make it at the next level. I think halfway through the NEXT 2013 season is fair.

So on that note, Im going to be busy getting ready for this weeks games. If you have any questions at all, or would like ot know what I think of a certain game, you can Twitter me or just send me a message. Lets have another profitable week and continue it into the end of the season, and into the basketball season!

Monday Night Football!! Chargers vs Raiders AND Bengals vs Ravens

Gonna keep these short and sweet. Taking the "Bad Boys" in both games today.

San Diego Chargers vs Oakland Raiders

Oakland here, first week of the season, playing at home vs the Chargers. I LOVE Palmer in this situation. Palmer has had half of last year, and a full camp and pre-season to learn the new system. He has great receivers at his disposal, and McFadden to open up the defense. **Trend Alert** Palmer has had his 2 biggest career days vs the Chargers..... The Chargers come in limping into another season. The fan base seems to have lost some faith, and for the past few seasons, the Chargers always get out to a slow start. Then they have to open up the season playing in one of the most hostile enviorments in the NFL. The Chargers have questions at the running back position, and Rivers seems to be degrading year after year.

Taking the Raiders -1.5 for 2 Units

Also taking Raiders -6.5 for +200 for 1 Unit

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Cincinatti Bengals vs Baltimore Ravens


Ravens coming off of what should have been a Super Bowl Year. Yet they were denied that chance in the Championship by the New England Patriots. They have something to prove, and I beleive this is the game they come out onto the field looking for a fight. It just happens to be against the Cincinatti Bengals. The Bengals are slowly starting to creep back into contention in the division, but still have questions at the most important positions. This game goes down quick, and look for the Ravens to take the lead early and build on it throughout the game. Like the big brother who had a bad day at school, then the llittle brother walks into the house.... You know how it ends.

Taking the Ravens -7 for 1 Unit

Taking the Ravens -4 First Half for 2 Units

Good luck guys, this looks like an easy win this Monday Night!!

The rise and fall of Andrew Leaf (errr I mean Luck)

As I sat and watched the Colts play the Bears, I thought "What a great game, Luck is a smart QB and wont make those typical mistakes.". Well, I was wrong a few minutes into the game. Leaf (err, I mean Luck) Was misreading routes, throwing into tight coverage, not protecting the ball, and playing like he was a deer caught in headlights.

This brought me back to 1998. The Colts took Manning as the first pick in the draft, and the Chargers took Ryan Leaf. One shined, and the other commited highway robbery. Ryan Leaf took a $31 million dollar contract (with an $11 million dollar guaranteed signing bonus) which made him the highest signing ever at that time. 4 years later he announced his retirement. While Manning on the other hand has grown to become one of the greatest quartbacks to ever play the game.

This got me to thinking... "What if the football gods are now paying the Colts back for sticking the Chargers and the NFL with Ryan Leaf"?.

Instead of the Colts choosing Robert Griffin III, they sided with Leaf, errr, I mean Luck. It was like magic watching Robert GriffinIII make reads, change the play at the line, and pick apart the Saints defense. He made smart decisions and wasnt rattled, unlike Leaf (damn, I did it again... I mean Luck).

Do I think Luck will be a bust or shine in the NFL? I cant positivally say "Yay" or "Nay" just yet. Maybe he had jitters because it was his first ever regular season NFL game? Or maybe he is just prone to making bad decisions on the NFL level, as he did throw a few picks in pre-season? Maybe he isnt used to the speed that all the players move in the NFL and he just needs time to groom into his rythm?

All these things were said about Leaf... But Leaf was stubborn and a selfish player. It seems Luck is a lot more mature, and really wants to play. So, time will tell....But, how long will the fans wait? RGBIII fans got a treat the very first day.

Start of the NFL season and I feel like a kid again!

Sitting here, just over an hour left till the NFL kicks off another great season this Sunday morning. Yes it offically started on Wednesday when the Cowboys gave the NY Giants a drubbing in front of the NY Giants fan-base.

Yet, this being the first Sunday is the start of the season in my mind. There are some great games and lots of questions we will have answered. Then on the flip side, there are some things we are sure of, that we will question.

My top questions for this season are:

1. Robert Griffin III - Will he live up to all the hype we have seen since the draft and in the pre-season? Will starting his first official game with the Saints be a learning experience, or something that will haunt him?

2. Andrew Luck - Same as RGIII, yet going against the Bears....

3. NY Jets - Are the Jets really as bad as we think they are? Or will they somehow have "Magic in the Air" and everything works out for them as it did in 2010?

4. Atlanta Falcons - Can they finally live up to the hype and actualy break those chains holding them back from at least reaching the Conference Championships?

5. Replacement Ref's - Will they affect the outcome of any game? Or will it only affect a handful as the normal refs?

Some of these questions I hope will be answered today, or at least clear some of the smoke around those same questions. But, I am sure even more questions will arise after the games are over. At least we can all enjoy this Sundays games, leading into the double header on Monday. And on a side note, if I hear or see 1 more article on "Sanchez-Longoria" or the media gives them a nickname like "Sangoria or Lonchez" I might seriously pull my teeth out.

College Football week #2 - lets settle in for a long season

Last week was a great week in college for those who follow these plays. You went 4-1 for +5.60 units, which is a great start to the season. The only loss was with Michigan State not covering the spread. Go back to my post and read the write up, and thats how the game pretty much went. RB Bell ran up and down the feild, the Michigan State defense only gave up 6 points, yet, Michigan State still didnt cover, albeit, they did win.

So now we go into week #2 of this long college football season. Some teams are who we thought they were going to be, and some teams we are still trying to figure out. So, enough of the hoopla, and lets just get to the plays.

Central Florida vs Ohio State (-17.5)
Urban Meyer knows how to get his players ready and riled up for a game. With this being the first home game of the season, he will not take it lightly. When they arrived back to the campus, Meyer and the players were already watching film into the evening preparing for Central Florida. With the new spread offense showing great potential (except for that sloppy first quarter vs Miami of Ohio last week), they settled in and did whatever they wanted. I can see the same thing happening here. The only thing is Ohio State is going to have to slow down Central Floridas great offensive attack... Which I think they should do by keeping them off of the feild.

Prediction: Central Florida 20 Ohio State 52

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Purdue vs Notre Dame (-14.5)
Notre Dame's huge defensive and offensive line vs Purdues Huge offensive line and undersized defensive line.... Advantage Notre Dame. Thats going to be the tale of the game, mark my words. Notre Dame has such a balanced attack that Purdue will be unable to slow it down, even tho Notre Dame's QB hasnt had much college experience. Watch the Fighting Irish put on a show at home.

Prediction: Purdue 16 Notre Dame 41

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Iowa State (+4.5) vs Iowa

This is the game of Iowa States running back vs Iowa's running back. Iowa does have a slightly bigger offensive line, YET Iwoa State has an even better and faster defensive line and LB's. Iowa States RB Shontrelle Johnson (just like Mich. St. Bell) will have a career day, so expect huge numbers from him. Then add in the speedy scrambling QB Steele Jantz who can heave the ball or throw the timely screen pass to exploit the Iowa defense when they set up to stop the run. The key to this game - Iowa States defense pressures the QB and bottles up the Iowa running game. Serious upset here! Im taking the better defensive line and better QB/RB combo.

Prediction: Iowa State 30 Iowa 20

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Maryland vs Temple (-10.5)

Steve Addazio is making a "Tebow Clone" out of Temples QB Chris Coyer since coming over from Florida last year to become head coach of the Owls. Temple has one of the biggest offensive lines in college, and loves to run. When they want to pass, if it isnt there, you have Chris "Tebow" Coyer who is able to run downfeild when he see's an open lane. **If you want to watch an exciting game, this is the one I reccomend this weekend.

Prediction: Maryland 24 Temple 41

PLAYS FOR THIS WEEK:

Ohio State -17.5 for 1 Unit
Notre Dame -14.5 for 2 Units
Iowa State +4.5 for 1 Units
Temple -10.5 for 2 Units

6 Units out for this weekends college games. Lets have a great weekend.!

NFL GAME - Pittsburgh Steelers vs Denver Broncos -1.5

This line is very interesting. Its now sitting at -1.5 with the Denver Broncos as the favorite.

Without Manning, Pittsburgh would be walking into Denver as a -6 to -6.5 favorite. So what the line tells me is that the sportsbooks (and bookies) know the "Joe Public" are going to back Manning as he attempts to make a comeback after a surgery that kept him out for over a year.

"Joe Public" likes to bet on those *feel good* sporting events. Lets take last weeks Peen State game... and we see how that ended. "Joe" didnt take into account that Ohio had a better team, has won close to 80% of their games the past 3 years, and they always show up to play. "Joe" ignored the fact that Penn State has been in disarray for the past few years, recruitment of top players has been down, and that the top tier recruits had transferred out this season. and the outcome?? "Joe" betting on the feel good story, go creamed at the books.

Betting on sports has nothing to do with betting on your emotions. Its about investing your money wisely and looking at the angles of the games. If you are betting with your heart, you arent a real bettor, you are a casual bettor who doesnt mind losing. Bettors who want to make money, always play it smart.

Dont get me wrong, Denver has a good team coming onto the feild. But, when you statistically look at what Denver and Pittsburgh are putting out there, The Steelers have a huge advantage on both sides of the ball. The Steelers have a better all-around defense, albeit their offensive line needs work. They are going to attack through the air with their new offensive coordinator, and have a string of running backs who can run the feild when Denver starts playing against the pass.

Now, Denver has a couple talented receivers, a mediocre at best running back corps. and an aging QB who hasnt taken a regular season snap in almost a year and a half. I will give them credit for having a speedy defense, but thats the double edge sword vs the Steelers new offensive look.

If you are GIVING me points to bet against an againg QB who hasnt thrown in over a year in the regular season, and a corps of running backs who have lackluster ability against the Steelers defense..... I will definately take the points and run away with an easy win to cash out my ticket.

PREDICTION: Steelers come away with a win, with Manning and "Joe Public" humbled. Take the +1.5 and roll with an easy underdog win for 1 Unit

Pittsburgh Steelers +1.5 for 1 Unit

Pittsburgh Steelers 30 Denver Broncos 13

NFL Week 1 plays - Dog Day Week

Several dogs are in play this opening week, as oddsmakers and squares always over-value teams with a winning season last year, and under-value mediocre and poor teams from last year. So week 1 is where you can make money, or go broke at the start of the season. So here are the plays for this opening week of the NFL:

Dallas +4 (1/2 unit)
Dallas ML +180 (1/2 unit)
Atlanta -1 -130 ( 2 units **updated line from the last post last week)
Oakland Raiders +1.5 (2 units)
Indianapolis +11 (1 unit)

6 units worth of plays with week, all with value towards the bettor. So lets have a great opening week again, following the 4-1 +5.80 NCAAF winning opening week

Saturdays NCAAF - 3 games today

NCAAF Record 1-1 -0.40 units

Ohio State -23.5
Clemson -3.5
Hawaii +40.5

All plays are for 2 units