NFL Week #7 Jets/Patriots OVER 47.5

NY Jets vs NE Patriots OVER 47.5 (Average line 43.5... highest line was 50.5, lowest was 37.5 *Brady was injured that year and did not play) The total has gone OVER in 4 of the NY Jets last 5 games when playing on the road against New England The total has gone OVER in 5 of the NY Jets last 5 games when playing New England The total has gone OVER in 17 of the NY Jets last 22 games on the road The total has gone OVER in 4 of New England's last 5 games The total has gone OVER in 16 of New England's last 23 games at home **The total has gone OVER in 5 of New England's last 5 games when playing NY Jets

Week #7 Chicago Bears

CHICAGO BEARS -6 to -7 Detroit is 1-6 ATS in its last 7 games Detroit is 2-5 SU in its last 7 games Detroit is 1-7 ATS in its last 8 games on the road Detroit is 1-4 SU in its last 5 games on the road Detroit is 1-7 SU in its last 8 games when playing Chicago Detroit is 1-6 SU in its last 7 games when playing on the road against Chicago Detriot is 0-5 ATS last 5 versus a team ranked in the top 10 defensivly (2-8 ATS last 10) Detriot is 1-4 ATS last 5 during nationally televised evening games (3-7 last 10) Chicago Bears (w/ Cutler) are 7-3 ATS last 10 during nationally televised evening games

Week #7 Pittsburgh Steelers

Pittsburgh Steelers -1 to -2 Pittsburgh is 10-1 SU in its last 11 games when playing on the road against Cincinnati Cincinnati is 1-5-1 ATS in its last 7 games at home Cincinnati is 2-9 SU in its last 11 games when playing Pittsburgh Cincinnati is 2-9 ATS in its last 11 games when playing Pittsburgh Cincinnati is 1-10 SU in its last 11 games when playing at home against Pittsburgh Cincinnati is 1-9-1 ATS in its last 11 games when playing at home against Pittsburgh

Week #7 Buffalo Bills

Buffalo bills -3 to -3.5 *Tennessee is 2-8 ATS in its last 10 games *Tennessee is 2-4 SU in its last 6 games *Tennessee is 0-5 ATS in its last 5 games on the road *Tennessee is 1-4 SU in its last 5 games on the road *Tennessee is 7-1 SU in its last 8 games when playing Buffalo *Tennessee is 3-7 SU in its last 10 games when playing on the road against Buffalo *Tennessee is 3-5-1 ATS in its last 9 games when playing on the road against Buffalo **OVERLOOKED STAT** Titans are 0-3 ATS this year against teams with a rushing attack - Teams that gain 100+ yds or more on average per game this year. *Titans have given up 9 sacks last 3 games *Bills are 8-2 ATS last 10 games as a favorite of -7 or less (8-2 last 10 at home) *Titans are 3-7 ATS last 10 games as an underdog of -7 or less (2-8 ATS last 10 on the road)

Plays for week #7... continuing the winning ways

San Francisco 49ers -7.5 to -8 *Have not lost consecutive games since 11/26/2010 *oOutscored Seattle 96-48 past 3 games between them *Lynch has gained only 62 on 23 rushes in two games at San Francisco *Gore has had two 200yd rushing games vs Seattle in San Francisco *Seattle is 2-5 ATS in its last 7 games when playing on the road against San Francisco *Seattle is 7-14-1 ATS in its last 22 games on the road *49ers rank #1 in defense and #7 in offense... while holding the #1 spot rushing for #176.8yds per game while scoring ranks #11 with 25.3 points per game.

College Football Plays for this week

Miami-Florida +13.5 (vs Notre Dame) 2 Units *upset Special* 1 Unit +405 Money Line Maryland -6 (vs Wake Forest) 2 units Northwestern +2.5 (vs Penn State) 2 Units

Small plays for the NFL Week #5

Philadelphia vs Pittsburgh (-3) 1 Unit Green Bay vs Indianapolis (+7.5, ML +250) 1 unit each Houston vs NY Jets (pending, waiting for line to move more in my favor, taking the +points) 1 Unit

SD Chargers vs New Orleans Saints (-3)

For those that follow me, you know I dont have any "Big Plays" week after week. I only slightly wager more then my average of 2 Units when I am absolutely sure of a game, and even more if I am extremely confident. This might be my only 5 Unit game I will play this year, unless there is something else that sticks out so greatly. The Saints are my play, definately 100%, absolutely sure of myself on this one. Drew Bree's, simple as that. He is a leader, he wont let his team fail and they know how to rally around him. Every game this year, the Saints have rallied yet come up short. Everyone who knows sports knows they are A LOT better then their 0-4 Record. The have a strong passing and running game, a great defensive line... yet have a beligered defense. This week they are hosting the SD Chargers, who have yet to have a quality win against a playoff team in their last 16 games (yes SIXTEEN games). On that note, am I saying that the Saints are a playoiff team this year?... definately not, but they have the talent to make a run for it, and I am sure no one would be surprised to see them tear off 8 straight wins at any time this season. With the passing and running attack of the Saints against a Chargers defense, and vice-versa, Ill lay the little 3 points, as the Saints offense has a better leader who will rally around him, and more talent on the offensive side of the ball. Am I crazy laying -3 points on a team thats 0-4 this year? We will see when the final whistle blows. Drew Brees will NOT let his team give up.... SAINTS -3 *5 Units

Atlanta Falcons (-3) vs Washington

Yes, I am riding the Falcons again. The Falcons have one of the best passing games in the NFL this season... The Redskins have one of the worst passing defenses. Washington is giving up an average of 326 yards per game in the air. Atlanta's defense will cause all sorts of problems and looks for RGIII, as he has yet to face a defense like this in college or the NFL. Look for him to be mistake prone the whole first half, until adjustments are made at halftime. Speaking of after halftime... Washingotn is giving up an average of 11.50 points in the 4th quarter so far this season. So if Atlanta is behind or the game is close, Washingtons defense has been shown to crumble at the end of the game. This is a play, and Im giving up only a field goal against a Rookie QB with a horrible pass defense? Im going to "Air it out" and give up the measley -3 points. Atlanta -3 *3 Units

Arizona Cardinals (PICK) vs St. Louis Rams

The Cardinals have been a monster the since the middle of last year. Losing only 2 games straight up, while covering close to 75% ATS. Here they are playing a road game, and storming into St. Louis. This is a classic game, as most of the smart money last week was on the Rams to beat Seattle, which they did. Also last week, there was money (including mine) was on Arizona, and they werent focused at home, but did end up winning SU. Now this is where perception and good handicapping comes into play on this matchup. Most of the bettors are going to look at Arizona and say "They looked horrible and almost lost last week, they arent that good, and the Rams were underdogs and beat Seattle" and they will slide their money on St. Louis at home. But, you have to look deeper then that. Arizona is 10-1 SU last 11 vs St. Louis, while going 5-0 SU when playing IN St. Louis. Then when you look at the ATS, Arizona is 8-2 vs St. Louis. Now on the defensive side of the ball, Arizona and their coach have built a formidable defensive line, LB's and secondary. This will spell quite a bit of trouble, with S. Jackson nursing an injury and is listed as probable, and Bradford isnt the mobile of a QB to escape the fast pressure of the Cardinals. This game will be won, yet again, by the Cardinals Defense, with Kolb managing and draining the clock of the offense. Im tkaing the team who has proven it can win the close games in the end... and Im not giving up points? Definately a play!! Arizona -Pick 2 Units

Chicago Bears (+4) vs Dallas Cowboys

Another defensive spotlight game. This one is simple. the Cowboys offense, even though they are 2-1 have struggled. Now they are playing a defense that can stop both the run and pass. And with their offensive line offering no protection, Romo plays at his worst. The Cowboys are also killing themselves with penalties and turnovers this year. This will be a close game, as both teams are going after the QB's. It will be a close game, quite a few turnovers (prop bet of turnovers OVER 4 would be a nice play) This game comes down to the wire, I see a field goal winning it for either team. Thats why I am taking the +4... had the Cowboys been +4 I would be taking them. I have this line at PICK. 2 Units Chicago +4 1 Unit Money Line +180

Seattle vs St. Louis (+2.5 and ML +125)

Seattle comes to town after losing to Green Bay (yes, they lost) but was handed a win. Seattles offense struggled to move the ball at all, and only got lucky a few plays. With no one to lead that offense, they storm into St. Louis. The Rams, having just come home from Chicago, managing a measley 6 points, are poised to make an offensive spurt. Seattle has a great defensive front, but will have to contend with a 2 dimensional offense.... unlike last weeks loss to Green Bay, where they were able to constantly rush Rogers, as the Packers arent a threat to run. Im playing the better team here, and at home. I dont see how a bad team on the road, coming off of a loss, with a horrid offense is favored in this one. Ill lay my money with QB Bradford and RB Jackson, as their offensive line is looking healthier. The better offense wins this one in a low scoring affair. 2 Units St Louis +2.5 1 Unit Money Line +125

NFL needs to end the lockout ASAP -Packers were robbed

Looking at the photo, it makes you wonder what the referee was thinking when he made the touchdown call. You can see the ref's arm going up to make the signal, but look at where the ball is while he is doing it. Green Bay defender Jennings, clearly has both hands on the ball and is clutching it to his chest. While Seattle's WR Tate, has his forearm around Jennings neck and chest. The other referee had already signaled to "Stop the clock" which meant it was going to be a touchback, and Green Bays ball... game over. Then, out of nowhere, a hero runs in out of nowhere, and signals a touchdown. As you can see, by looking at the pic, Jennings had 100% possession of the ball. So, I ask again... "What was that referee thinking?"

Now, you will have the biased Seattle die-hard fans saying that the referee was using the "Simultainious Catch" rule. Which basically says, that if two opposing players simultainiously catch the ball at the exact same time, the tie goes to the offensive player. Well, as this photo shows, Gren Bay's Jennings again has 100% possession of the ball, has both hands on it, and is bringing it down to his chest. You can see Seattle's WR Tate elbow near Jennings stomach area. So unless Tate has an extraordinarily long forarm, thats made of rubber, there is no way he has any possession of the ball. It would just defy all the laws of physics and the build of the human body for Tate to be remotely close to possessing the ball at the same time as Jennings. The NFL/Referee lockout has to stop. There are so many fans, players and organizations that are fed up... and ITS ONLY WEEK #3!!! I know that I am not the only one who agrees that the calls are getting worse as the season goes on, so it makes you wonder how bad the officiating is going to be next week. It needs to stop, and it needs to stop NOW!

Week #3 Football Plays - Another winning week (hopefully)

Philadelphia Eagles vs Arizona Cardinals +4

The Eagles on the road, Playing Arizona at home.... Michael Vick is not playing well at all, forcing the ball and making bad decisions. Now with an offensive line that is decimated, this will be trouble. Vick has NEVER thrown or ran for a touchdown against Arizona.... yet he has turned the ball over 6 times ot them in 3 games. He has only passed for an average of 132 yds a game, and only completing 51% of his passes, giving him a 44.5 QBR. Then you put him up against Arizonas huge, healthy front line that is exactly the type that gives him and McCoy trouble, and there goes the Eagles offense. Arizonas running game is stepping up slowly, and the Eagles defense is giving up almost 5yds per run. This will open up the play action and wide-outs for Arizona. Arizonas defense wins this game for them. causing turnovers and giving the Cardinals the short field for most of the game. Im taking the LIVE DOG in this one, as it should have been a small favorite.

Arizona +4 for 2 units = $220 to win $200
Arizona ML +185 for 1 unit = $100 to win $185


Atlanta Falcons +3 vs San Diego Chargers

Seriously?? Chargers are favored by -3 ?? Let me ask you this question... who have the Chargers played this year to make them a favorite? The answer = Titans and Raiders.... the two WORST offenses in the NFL at this point. ,, who also happen to both be in the top 5 WORST Defenses in the NFL. then you have the Falcons who have played against Manning and the Broncos, both with really good offenses and defenses this year, and they stepped up. Im looking at this game as the Falcons keep the Chargers defense backpeddling, the Falcons offense is way too much. They can run the ball or pass the ball. Rivers will be confused by Nolans defensive scheme, just like Peyton Manning was... and I consider Manning to be the smartest QB in the NFL. Im taking the Road Dog here, the Falcons have just too much on both sides of the ball against a team that hasnt played anyone yet.

Atlanta Falcons +3 for 2 units $220 to win $200
Atlanata falcons ML for 1 unit $100 to win $150


Jacksonville Jaguars vs Indianapolis Colts -3

Jacksonville is horrible. this is the game where Luck really steps up at home. Playing against one of the worst defenses this year, and a lackluster offense led by MJD... If you are watching MJD play, he is taking it careful, and I mean very careful. He doesnt want to get hurt, he is looking for the big contract or to get traded. If he gets hurt, he loses the edge at the big $$$ he wants. Jaguars passing game is at best, mediocre. Indianapolis, at home, with the players and crowd supporting Luck and the Colts. This will be the game of the Colts season, Luck has his best game of the year and the Colts defense get a shut out or holds them to 10 or less.

Indianapolis Colts -3 for 2 units $220 to win $200


Green Bay Packers -3 vs Seattle Seahawks

I capped this game on Monday. My numbers have the Packers favored by -7.5. Then I find out Tuesday I cna get them at -3?? Seriously!!?? All day long!!! I know its hard to bet against the Seahawks at home, but in this spot vs the Packers, its an easy wager. First off, the Seahawks if they want ot win have to win in a shootout. but if you look at how Green Bays defense has stepped up this year (they said they would in the preseason), I dont see the Seahawks keeping up. then you have the offense of Rogers going up and down the field.... its just too much for the Seahawks defense. -3?? Definately ALL OVER IT! Worst part of this play, is that its the SQUAREST play on the board.

Green Bay Packers -3 for 3 units $330 to win $300
Green Bay Packers ALT Spread -7.5 +290 $100 to win $290


NY Giants -1.5 vs Carolina Pamnthers

Just because I need to have a little action on Thursdays game, Im taking the Giants -1.5 on the road. Until the Panthers can find their run game, Im betting the Giants defense shows up. Close game either way, as my personal line has the Giants -3. Im looking for Eli to win this one for the team and the defense to make a couple big stops.

NY Giants -1.5 for 1/2 unit $55 to win $50

This Weeks NFL PLAYS!!! Week #2 with 6 plays!

Atlanta Falcons -3 (2 Units)
KC Chiefs +3 (2 Units)
Indianapolis Colts +1.5 (1 Unit)
Steelers/Jets OVER 41.5 (2 units)
NO Saints -2.5 (2 Units)
SF 49ers -6 (2 Units)

6 plays during week #2... Holy Crap!!! Lets hope for a nice 6-0 day, or at least a 4-2 day haha

New System (hopefully) for betting the NFL this year

Been working on this 2 weeks before the season started, and this does NOT include any pre-season game om la. Going to see how this does. Its running on all the stats from last season+Playoffs and now the first week of the season.... so some teams/players have a greater number sampling then others.

It went 12-4 ATS last week, so I dont know if it was just a fluke or this can actually hold some water. I hope its actually something we can use, because it takes little over an hour per game to get a final number. Im working on the weekends NFL games, and will update as I get them done.

So for now all I have is tonights game. Which will be Green Bay vs Chicago #'s.

Green Bay Packers 37.55 pts (without defense/offensive turnovers/takaways pts from them)
Chicago Bears 20.3333 pts (without defense/offensive turnovers/takaways pts from them)

Variance Green Bay -8.2222 pts

Turnover/Takaway Points Variance points taken into consideration this year

Green Bay Packers 31.0
Chicago Bears 23.2

_________________________________________

On a side note, here is how it did on last weeks games ATS.

Dallas Cowboys 24.4
NY Giants 22.6

Atlanata Falcons 34.5
Kansas City Chiefs 29.2

Philadelphia Eagles 21.66
Cleveland Browns 12.9

Washington Redskins 25.3
N.O. Saints 33.2

N.E. Patriots 37.9
Tenn Titans 19.0

Miami Dolphins 15.4
Houston Texans 30.7

Jax Jaguars 17.5
Minn Vikings 22.3 (loss)

St. Louis Rams 19.9
Detriot Lions 29.0 (loss)

Buffalo Bills 13.6
NY Jets 23.5

Indianapolis Colts 14.2
Chicago Bears 25.6

San Francisco 49ers 28.8
Green Bay Packers 29.1

Carolina Panthers 23.9 (loss)
TB Bucs 15.1

Seattle Seahawks 19.5
Arizona Cardinals 17.5

Pitt Steelers 22.9
Denver Broncos 27.3

Cinn Bengals 20.4
Balt Ravens 32.8

SD Chargers 18.6
Oak Raiders 25.4 (Loss)

Notre Dame is ACCepting a New Outlook

Notre Dame announced Wednesday morning that they will be joining the ACC Conference as early as 2014. While snubbing the BIG 10 who was rumored that they would accept Notre Dame only if they moved all of their athletic programs to their conference. By aligning with the ACC, they came to the agreement that only the football program would remain independant, but would still have to play 5 ACC opponents during the football season.

This is a smart move for Notre Dame for several reasons. The basketball program would now play basketball powerhouses such as Duke and North Carolina and then get back the old rivalries against Syracuse and Pittsburgh. The football program would have to compete against Florida State, Miami, Virginia Tech and Clemson. Notre Dame did announce plans to hopefully further thier rivalry games versus USC, Navy and Michigan. Another notch in the deal is that Notre Dame has access to the Orange Bowl and the ACC's non-BCS bowl tie-ins. This schedule put Notre Dame's football program a step up in talent against their ACC's foes, which will hopefully boost their win/loss record.

The move does come at a cost. According to Big East associate commissioner John Paquette, Notre Dame must pay the conference a $5 million exit fee and provide 27 months' notice before leaving. Which is far less then the $7.5 million that Pittsburgh and Syracuse had to fork over to join the ACC by 2013. With the Football program waning, and the basketball program strengthening, both are going to benefit greatly from this move.

The only downfall here is that Notre Dame's independance is waning. By a vote of 7-5, they were forced to accept the 5 games against its ACC opponents in football. Which shows that Notre Dame's grip on being 100% independant is slowly slipping away. It is inevitable that sooner, rather then later, they will have to bite the bullet and pledge its loyalty to the ACC. They ACCepted the move, but how much longer until they ACCept their fate? Time will only tell...

NFL Picks and suggestions on who will win in week #2 of the NFL. Who is going to shine and who will fall?

Week #1 in the NFL came and went with a bang, and we saw some surprises. But those who have fantasy leagues, wager on sports legally, or have office pools need all the information they can get so they can have a slight advantage over anyone else. So as we look into week #2, lets see some trends than can give you an edge over your competition. While going 5-3 last week against the spread, and 13-2 straight up, I hopefully can do better this week.

Chicago Bears vs Green Bay Packers (-6.5)
When Aaron Rogers is at home the Bears have yet to beat the Packers, amassing an 0-3 record in Green Bay, and 1-6 record overall since Rogers has taken the Helm. When you look at last weeks games, the Packers played one of the leagues best defenses, while the Bears played on that was less than stellar. I dont see the Packers starting the season 0-2, and the Bears arent playing against a rookie QB this week. PICK: Green Bay Packers -6.5

Denver Broncos vs Atlanta Falcons (-3)
Matt Ryan came to play this year, the only thing bad about that is that Peyton Manning came to play as well. Both teams are almost identical on both sides of the ball. The only difference here is that the Falcons have a slight advantage with their offensive threats at the RB, WR and TE positions. On the flip side, the Broncos only have the edge in the QB position. Both offensive lines looked solid and should have no problem protecting the quarterback. I expect a close game, but not close enough at the end. This will be a fun game to watch. Take the better offensive weapons. PICK: Atlanta Falcons -3

Kansas City Chiefs vs Buffalo Bills (-3)
The Chiefs march into Buffalo for a very fun game this week. Yet I dont have much faith in Fitzpatrick and Spiller cant carry the load himself, as I am sure the Chiefs will be playing to stop him and make Fitzpatrick beat them. The Bills defense will struggle with the balanced attack of Charles and Cassell. Look for the Chiefs to lead by halftime, and win by double digits. PICK: Kansas City Chiefs +3

There are some great games this weekend, so lets have a great weekend. I'll finish up with who I think will win "straight up" this week. Packers, Giants, Patriots, Panters, Chiefs, Ravens, Raiders, Bengals, Texans, Seahawks, Redskins, Steelers, chargers, 49ers and Falcons.

follow me on Twitter for updates https://twitter.com/NFLTrends .

Week #1 of College and NFL in the books... Season is looking good!!

1st week is in the books. Im glad to say I had a winning week at the sportsbooks so far during this football season going a meager 10-7 for +3.20 units.

Im already looking ahead to this weeks plays in college and the NFL. But there are still some uncertains we have roaming around, and some that totally surprised me after this week.

1. Atlanta Falcons and the Dallas Cowboys showed up and did what I expected them to do.
2. The Raiders.... I had high hopes for them this season with Palmer and Russell both healthy. Yet I have to rethink this after the whole team made such stupid mistakes the whole game. Palmer and Russell cant win the games by themselves.
3. Steelers showing signs of age rapidly, and refuse to leave the old defensive system they have used for over a decade. I think its time to shake things up on defense, show a new look, everyone by now knows how they defend.
4. Carolina and their running game (or lack of one).

Those are my top points going forward into week #2. Andrew Luck almost made the list, but like my previous post, it is still to early to tell... Im going to give him a few more shots to show he has what it takes to make it at the next level. I think halfway through the NEXT 2013 season is fair.

So on that note, Im going to be busy getting ready for this weeks games. If you have any questions at all, or would like ot know what I think of a certain game, you can Twitter me or just send me a message. Lets have another profitable week and continue it into the end of the season, and into the basketball season!

Monday Night Football!! Chargers vs Raiders AND Bengals vs Ravens

Gonna keep these short and sweet. Taking the "Bad Boys" in both games today.

San Diego Chargers vs Oakland Raiders

Oakland here, first week of the season, playing at home vs the Chargers. I LOVE Palmer in this situation. Palmer has had half of last year, and a full camp and pre-season to learn the new system. He has great receivers at his disposal, and McFadden to open up the defense. **Trend Alert** Palmer has had his 2 biggest career days vs the Chargers..... The Chargers come in limping into another season. The fan base seems to have lost some faith, and for the past few seasons, the Chargers always get out to a slow start. Then they have to open up the season playing in one of the most hostile enviorments in the NFL. The Chargers have questions at the running back position, and Rivers seems to be degrading year after year.

Taking the Raiders -1.5 for 2 Units

Also taking Raiders -6.5 for +200 for 1 Unit

____________________________________________

Cincinatti Bengals vs Baltimore Ravens


Ravens coming off of what should have been a Super Bowl Year. Yet they were denied that chance in the Championship by the New England Patriots. They have something to prove, and I beleive this is the game they come out onto the field looking for a fight. It just happens to be against the Cincinatti Bengals. The Bengals are slowly starting to creep back into contention in the division, but still have questions at the most important positions. This game goes down quick, and look for the Ravens to take the lead early and build on it throughout the game. Like the big brother who had a bad day at school, then the llittle brother walks into the house.... You know how it ends.

Taking the Ravens -7 for 1 Unit

Taking the Ravens -4 First Half for 2 Units

Good luck guys, this looks like an easy win this Monday Night!!